Does Jets/Patriots 2011 Equal Game 4 of Red Sox/Yankees 2004?

"This is the biggest game in Jets history. Bigger than the championship game last year because it's against the Patriots." - My buddy Craig yesterday.

"If we win it's expected, if we lose it's the biggest disappointment ever." - My buddy Rob before the Red Sox/Yankees Game 7 in 2004.

What do those two quotes have to do with each other? It helps me explain how we get from a Game 4 baseball game to a round 2 football game. Let us start with...

The Review
2004. Yankees had a foot on the throat moment where the Red Sox were the unwilling victim. Then Mariano Rivera started trying to pick off Dave Roberts and the Red Sox went from being the biggest chokers ever to the biggest comeback ever. Oh and they won the World Series. As a Red Sox fan I can tell you that beating the Yankees sweetened that World Series victory. I'm not talking a subtle smile sweetening, I'm talking tears streaming down the face while running around Brooklyn screaming "how do you like me now?!" victory.

2010 (into 2011). Patriots & Jets are both 9 - 2. Supposed game of the century. Patriots crush Jets and deliver condescending "nice try kids." Sort of like Yankees fans reaction in 2003 when Aaron Boone took Wakefield over the wall. Only football moves much faster than baseball and instead of waiting for next year they meet this year.

Background done. How the heck is this game equal to the seminal moment in Red Sox history? It always begins with...

Intense Rivalry That is Over-the-Top & One-Sided
After recording, oh about 30 interviews with Jets fans during the 2009 season for Same Old Jets: A story of Hope (aka The Jets Curse) I can tell you there are two teams they hate more than others: Dolphins and Patriots. With the Patriots being the most hated. The Yankees and Red Sox rivalry has probably had 10 million or so words dedicated to it.

Sometimes the rivalry is in the eye of the beholder, or the media in many cases. The rivalries actually have consisted of one team constantly bloodying the other. The Yankee fans wouldn't acknowledge the BoSox and the Patriots fans believe that the Jets are the punchline to the joke, "What's green and red and has mud all over it?" The Jets after they Patriots finish stomping them.

That was BEFORE the Jets made the AFC Championship last year and got some Swagger. Before Hardknocks. Before Tom Brady left pieces of the Jets all over the field in New England this year. Oops. Well you need to fail before you succeed. Like the Red Sox not quitting the Jets aren't quitting. Rex Ryan continues to talking trash about Brady. You need...

Overbearing Arrogance
If you're outside of New York (or a Giants in New York) you want Rex Ryan to quit. Originally I was going to say "be quiet" except you really want him to be quiet and quit. Revis Island. Antonio Cromartie calling out Tom Brady. And cheeseburgers on the field. Let me take you back to Red Sox 2004 which had "The Idiots" signifying a who gives a damn attitude, Pedro's little person in the clubhouse, Manny-Being-Manny, Johny Damon auditioning to be Jesus, and Kevin Millar's "Born in the U.S.A." video. If you were NOT a Red Sox fan you wondered a) how can people who won nothing talk so much, and b) can I hit them? Can I hit them repeatedly? With a large object until they go away. You also need...

The Villain (or Hero depending on where you live)
For a rivalry to get vicious you need someone to be the focus of your fan anger. You need: Rex Ryan & Pedro Martinez. Rex Ryan needs his own paragraph in this madness. If you are a Jets fan you NEED Rex Ryan.

You need him to lead bunch of malcontents like Santonio Holmes who gives a huge first down gesture after catching a ball *when his team is getting killed*. You need Perdo Martinez coming out to pitch when the Red Sox have a huge lead and nearly causing a riot. This was AFTER Pedro threw Don Zimmer to the ground (that is the New York point of view; to the Red Sox fan Pedro merely moved out of the way and Zimmer fell). Overall, you really need the players to believe in themselves (or if you’re the opposition you think is part of the Overbearing Arrogance). You don't have this and you don't win. Specifically you need a player who will...

Take a Swing
Taking a swing is where you have had enough and manage to change the expectations of the franchise. In 2004 it was Jason Varitek taking a swing at A-Rod. This year it is Nick Folk actually taking a swing. Nick Folk! By all rights a terrible kicker. Right leg like in motion, hitting the game winning field goal instead of Doug O'Briening it off the upright. Along with the swing you need to understand...

The Road Goes Through Your Enemies Lands
Boston and New York hold an intense love/hate relationship that is mostly hate. New York's mayor was born in Boston. A New York team ruined a perfect season. Or as one of my childhood friends said, "Why would you want to live in New York? It's filled with New Yorkers." You need to beat your enemy to have yourself a true victory. Plus your enemy tends to have a great finisher. In this case...

Mariano equals Brady
Mariano is the greatest closer of all time. Brady is arguably the greatest championship quarterback of all time (Joe Montana's ears just perked up somewhere). You have to go through them to get to the championship. That simple. Though when everything is said and ton and the intangibles are made tangible, you and need to win the game. Or in this case...

A Reason the Underdog Prevails
I WILL give you an actual football reason the Jets may win.

The Patriots defense cannot stop the run. Yeah, sometimes it actually comes down to the game itself.

As a Boston fan I now know how my buddy Rob felt before that game. It is about a lifetime of getting used to success. I also under why Craig feels that way about THIS game. I felt it as a Red Sox fan when Roberts scored. It was a lifetime of failure being lifted.

Look at that Boston and New York fans - understanding each other a bit more every day.

Wayne

Cliff Lee: Dollars & Sense Part2

At 1 AM or so on 12/14/2010 the twitter verse exploded with the news that there indeed was a secret team in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and oh goodness he was heading to Philadelphia. Phillies 5 years/24 million average overcoming the Yankees 6 years/22 million average.

Once again there were cries of money being left on the table. To which I reply, oh please Cliff Lee left no dollars on the table and maybe, just maybe, he went where he wanted to pitch.

Yesterday I gave you Arlington v New York, today I present Philadelphia v New York. At least when it comes to the world of taxes, cost of living, and money left on the table. *I'm using Philadelphia and New York City as the basis due to the fact that is where the teams play and I have no idea where Cliff and his family plans on residing.

Okay that 59% is a pretty incredible number. Let us put that together with the state and city taxes I was talking about in yesterday's post - though Pennsylvania actually has a tax of 3.07%, which is higher than Texas's 0%, though lower that New York's 11.3%.

My screen capture software doesn't seem to like today's graphic so I'll bullet point the important numbers

• **$32,450,000 Additional Amount over Five Year contract to cover cost of living difference (this has been adjusted from the initial figure of 64 to include that half the amount is not going to be adjusted for cola - well at least until below)
• **2,263,250 Additional Amount per year to cover difference in state taxes (this has been adjusted to include that half the games are on the road)
• **$28,942,650 Actual Amount per year Yankee off would need to be for Cliff Lee to not leave money on the table

Nearly 29 million dollars. Which is is way less than my original estimate of 37 million dollars and for that I'm thankful for those who have taken the time to read and comment. Either way, can we stop with the Cliff Lee left money on the table nonsense? Both numbers were certainly large enough to leave Cliff and his family feeling pretty good for life.

Oh, the 16 million dollars 6th year option. That presumes that Cliff won't pitch again after this contract. Okay, even if he retires after this contract he will still have made more money in Philadelphia than he would have in New York City the 12 million dollars easily covered due to the cost of living differences.

***Okay, the following two paragraphs are the third updates to this entry and I want to thank @Bill_TPA and @vijtable for bringing up diminishing value (aka diminishing marginal value) when it comes to cola for a contract this large. Or as an economics major @sabometrics wrote to me, "The concept of diminishing marginal utility makes the cost of living adjustments and, to a large extent the difference in the value of the contract, moot. Cliff Lee would likely only enjoy 150 million dollars a marginal amount more than he will enjoy 120 million dollars. Of course it is impossible to say what his specific marginal utility curve looks like but it's pretty safe to say that any of these contract put him at a pretty flat area of the curve."

Well, that seems to put a damper in my original conclusion when it comes to the largness of the numbers. I could even just hide behind "half the amount is not going to be adjusted for cola" but really there is no way that number holds up. Taking into account just the state tax dollars and a slight cost of living adjustment the numbers still add up, though not nearly as spectactularly cool as before and certainly not nearly the 59% difference as before. However I still feel strong enough about my original conclusion - or at least to figure that the Yanks would have had to upped the offer at least $1.00.

Cliff gets to pitch where he wanted to pitch, and in this case he certainly will be well paid and not a cent of New York's money was left on the table.

*
Clarification of why I chose these particular cities. Yes, you can use lesser suburbs (or wealthier) ones.
** Per valid points and feedback this number has been adjusted to reflect that he will spend 1/2 the year in Philadelphia and 1/2 the year in Arkansas
*** The third update