Saturday, June 25, 2011

Quantifying Luck

Luck = opportunity + preparedness.

At least that is how the old saying go. Right now Kevin Correia of the Pittsburgh Pirates is a case study in luck. His record stands at a robust lots more wins than loses. Normally not an issue, except in the world of sabermetrics where we recognize that Wins are a result of a team effort then we are left with Correia's peripheral stats of K/9, Fip, et cetera.

Rather than delve into those stats I am going to sit here and wonder whether a team can actually give better effort behind a certain pitcher. I've played enough baseball in my life to understand that there are some days someone you don't like is pitching and, as much as this is a game of professionals it is played by human beings who happen to be professionals, well there are opportunities to not try.

In major league baseball a hitter can give up a bat. Or not run our a hit. Or not hustle after a ball. Difficult to quantify - certainly; possible that it happens - certainly.

Wayne

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